JAVED
RANA
Little
is known on how the unprecedented disgraceful exit of the US led NATO
from Afghanistan in August 2021, had its backlash within the
corridors of power in next door neighbour Pakistan. The backlash
exacerbated with host of other internal and external factors which
finally led to the ouster of the then country’s Prime Minister
Imran Khan from power in April this year. It all started in late last
year, when the tension brewed up between Pakistan’s powerful
military and Imran Khan on how and who among the military Generals
should handle intelligence operations in Afghanistan following the
return of the Taliban to power after 20 years long battle against
nearly 50 member International Security Assistant Force led by the
NATO.
Pakistan’s
Baggage of Clandestine Afghan Policy
The
US led West always perceived Pakistan’s Afghan policy with the
pinch of salt and that is why the United States never hesitated to
blame country’s powerful intelligence agency ISI for running
with the hare and hunting with the hounds.
Pakistan
was among hardly few countries which recognized the Taliban’s first
government from 1996 to 2001. However, Islamabad took U-turn and
ditched its ally—the Taliban to support the West’s
so-called war against terror after Al-Qaeda, sheltered by the Taliban
in Afghanistan, attacked key strategic installations in the US
killing as many as 3000 Americans on September 11, 2001. Pakistan
played a key role in toppling the Taliban government by sharing
critical intelligence and allowed Americans to setup military bases
on its soil to carry out over 57000 attacks on the Taliban insurgents
in the neighboring country. However, after the US opened up an
uncalled for new war theatre in Iraq, elements within powerful secret
services, according to Washington, kicked off clandestine support to
the insurgent Taliban. Islamabad’s covert support to the Taliban
was based on suspicions about the perceived secretive policy of the
US to have in a systematic manner abetted Pakistan’s arch
rival India to expand and strengthen its foothold in Afghanistan from
where New Delhi allegedly backed a sustained terror campaign in
Pakistan. Nearly 80,000 were killed in retaliation to Pakistan’s
official support to US war agenda in Afghanistan.
Unlike
past top leaders, in 2018, with the backend support of the powerful
military, Imran Khan, a cricketer turned politician, came into power
on anti-American sentiments vowing to end official support to US war
on terror. Under his government, the US stopped drone attacks in
Pakistan’s bordering region where more than 4000 innocent people
were killed over the years.
Notwithstanding
threats from Washington to face the “ consequences”, Khan
unlike his predecessors, resisted the US pressure “to do more”
an apparent reference to end his country’s parallel clandestine
support to the Taliban until they return to power in Kabul last
year.”. Finally upon formal US government’s request, Pakistan
under Khan’s government facilitated a peace deal between Washington
and the Taliban in February 2020, on the basis of which the NATO
haphazardly pulled out of Afghanistan in August 2021.
What
US Wants Pakistan To Do
The
Taliban established their ties with Beijing through their influence
on Pakistan months before they returned to power. The Taliban have
been informally discussing with China on how to give it a greater
role in shaping up future economic landscape of Afghanistan with
assurance to watch Beijing strategic interests in the region. Within
weeks, after the Taliban’s return to power, they smashed American
CIA intelligence network with annual black budget of 52 billion US
dollars in Afghanistan.
After
losing all its intelligence assets in Afghanistan, the US decided to
take Pakistan on board to keep the Taliban government destabilized
and more importantly win Islamabad back to its side to contain rising
China, a key strategic ally and northern neighbour of this 220
million populated Muslim country in South Asia.
Until
early April this year, very obvious hurdle was the then Prime
Minister Imran Khan known for his pro China and pro Russia posturing.
In a blunt manner Khan publicly refused to be part of any American
game plan in the region and vowed his country would not be part of
any block or any new war theatre. He very bluntly refused to allow
the US to setup military bases again in Pakistan against the Taliban
government while on the contrary country’s powerful military was
already engaged in discreet negotiations with Pentagon to facilitate
Americans to carry out attacks against remnants of AL-Qaeda and
defiant senior members of the Taliban. Under the this plan, the US
wants Pakistan to shelve or at least cut to size its ambitious 62
billion dollar “Built and Road Initiative” (BRI) linked with
energy and road infrastructure projects which connect China’s
western borders with Arabian sea through 2700 kilometer long land
routes in Pakistan. BRI provides Beijing an alternative route for
trade and military supplies in the event of China’s war with the US
and its allies Japan,
India, Australia and Taiwan in South China sea in south east Asia,
therefore Pentagon wants BRI projects through Pakistan to be shelved
at every cost. The US has allegedly used Indian sponsored terror
groups to kill Chinese engineers and others working on BRI
projects in Pakistan to prevent these mega strategic projects from
taking off. The US is also pressurizing Pakistan to normalize
its ties with arch India by abandoning its UN mandated claim over
disputed territory of Kashmir region and recognize apartheid State of
Israel, something easier said than done.
US’s
Browbeating
Pakistan, backfiring
Washington
was alarmed in early this year over two successive visits of the then
Prime Minister Imran Khan, first to Beijing and later within weeks to
Moscow on the very day, Russia invaded Ukraine. His ill-timed visit
was perceived in Washington as if Pakistan was readying to desert
decades long US alliance and join Chinese and Russian led block. This
followed Washington’s direct threats to country’s military, known
for making and breaking governments, to face the consequence if
Imran Khan’s the then government was not replaced with the pro US
Opposition parties, according to leaked contents of the cipher sent
by country’s embassy in Washington. The military allegedly played
its role behind the scene to replace Imran Khan’s government with
pro-US political parties in April this year. Khan made public
contents of the cipher his country’s embassy in Washington had sent
to army chief and others on how Americans conspired to topple his
elected government. With masses already burdened with high
inflation and unprecedented price hike, Khan launched a massive
anti-US agitation campaign which has been attracting hundreds of
thousands of people on the streets. The pro-US government backed by
the military is now prosecuting Khan on of what appears to be
politically motivated charges ranging from concealments of assets and
funding to his party by overseas Pakistanis. His party members and
pro Imran Khan journalists have been detained and tortured to silence
anti-US and anti-military voices in Pakistan. Nonetheless, his
parties won all by-elections with thumping majority. The
pro US government and military are losing grounds to the defiant
popular anti US leader. Khan is building up public pressure to hold
early federal Parliamentary elections and in a foreseeable scenario,
he party is likely to return to power. The traditional
manipulative role of the military to rig elections, is now shrinking
not by choice by the Generals but because of hostile political
conditions Khan's agitation campaign has created for the powerful
army.
Since
the ouster of Imran Khan, Pakistan has been in grip of economic and
political turmoil. Khan enjoys the support within ranks and file
of the military except for few powerful military Generals who are
calling shots against him and his party. The ousted Prime Minister
through a systematic campaign has portrayed the hostile Generals as
traitors among people for being in league with an alliance of pro US
political parties in ousting him. The ranks and file of the military
perceive the ruling pro US political parties being bigger part
of the political crises partially because of massive scale of
corruption they indulged in over the years and partially because of
their alleged role in two past scandals known as “Memogate and
Dawnleak” , the very crux of which was to freeze country’s
nuclear program, allow the US military’s foot print on Pakistani
soil to hunt down pro Pakistan militants and portray country ‘s
powerful military as a rogue army supporting “ terrorism” in
Indian occupied Kashmir and the then occupied Afghanistan.
The
current Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa has been at the heart of
allegations to have used the clout of army on judiciary behind the
scene to save ruling corrupt political leaders from being convicted
in the courts after Bajwa allegedly conspired to topple Khan's
government in league with the then Opposition parties and US in
April, something however, the military brushes aside as a "
propaganda" to tarnish army's image among people.
Khan’s
threats of long march to soon lay a siege of the capital Islamabad,
looms large inducing a sustained political and economic
destabilization in Pakistan, the very cause of which is deeply rooted
in the ouster of his government. Khan through agitation is creating
hostile political conditions for the government not to appoint a new
docile army chief who may be not synced with his party’s political
agenda largely revolving around to secure convictions of his
political opponents from courts on money laundering charges and a
make country’s foreign policy independent, free of decades long US
clout.
ENDS
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