Javed Rana drills down factors on how top court’s ruling would cast a dark shadow on military’s decisive informal engagements in power politics.
Though not immediately, but
surely in months to come, the Supreme Court's ruling is likely to change power
dynamics in favour of mainstream popular Opposition party of jailed leader Imran
Khan. And it could happen at the expanse
of ruling political alliance cobbled together allegedly by military to keep its
hold on power politics through what the Opposition parties blame the worst ever
“fraudulent” and rigged general elections held early this year.
The 8 out of 13 member panel of
judges have come up with a landmark
verdict to hand back 78 reserved seats
to the Opposition in the Parliament after the court found that Election
Commission illegally and unconstitutionally awarded the reserved seats to other
political groups mainly the ruling alliance in the federal and provincial
parliaments.
The Pakistan’s powerful military
and secret services have been at the heart of allegations to have exercised their
decisive informal clout on country’s Election Commission and civil
administration who in a coordinated operation “fraudulently produced fabricated
and tempered elections results in favour
of ruling alliance headed by sitting Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif in February
8’s general elections. Pakistan Tehreek Insaf (PTI) of Imran Khan claims to
have won nearly 180 seats out of 262 directly contested constituencies in the
national Parliament. The PTI has come up with plausible evidence revealing that
the ruling party of the current Prime Minister had hardly won less than 20
seats and so were the case with other blue eyed parties of the military while rest of the seats were secured by Khan’s
party as per the original elections results from most of the polling stations
across the country. At many polling
stations, the miliary soldiers and agents of secret services were filmed disrupting and throwing
out Opposition candidates and their
representatives from district election offices where the counting process was
underway. Notwithstanding, the PTI turned out to be the largest party in the
National Assembly with nearly 90 seats and it also managed to form regional government
in bordering province with Afghanistan, in defiance of powerful military---
something unprecedented in the history of Pakistan.
The PTI candidates contested
elections as independents after the Election Commission deprived them to use
party symbol following a controversial ruling by three judges of the top court
in mid January this year. The large number of PTI candidates were blackmailed, tortured and manhandled and were physically prevented to contest elections until they
either deserted Khan’s party or joined the ruling alliance before and after the
general elections.
Directly connected to the latest
verdict of Supreme Court, is controversial decision of the Election Commission which
deprived the PTI to have its share in reserved seats for women and minorities
on the basis of popular votes it had obtained in general elections. On July 12 the top court set aside the Commission's decision and
announced to hand these seats back to Khan’s party.
The polls preceded large scale arrests and tortures of PTI supporters and their leaders allegedly by military run secret services who have been tainted with accusations to have used every conceivable dirty trick to curtail the popularity of Imran Khan.
Khan politically cashed-in over his unceremonious ouster from power blaming the military Generals to have hobnobbed with the US in dislodging his government in early 2022. The Generals were unhappy with the then Prime Minister Imran Khan after he publicly refused to the US request to again set up miliary bases in Pakistan to carry out attacks in neighbouring Afghanistan and purse American agenda on Ukraine war in addition to normalizing ties with the apartheid Israel.
Immediate Impact of Court Ruling on Political Landscape
Until days before the court ruling, the military and the political government were readying to alter country’s fundamental constitutional structure to further tighten their grip on power. The senior judges including those who handed down recent historical judgement, were offered three years extension in their tenure in return of again an adverse verdict against the PTI. Had it been delivered, it could have clearly facilitated the ruling alliance to bring controversial constitutional amendments with two third majority in the two Houses of the Federal Parliament. The very motive was to rein-in independent High Court judges who have been setting aside controversial convictions and providing other similar legal relief to jailed leader Imran Khan on what appears to be politically motivated charges ranging from corruption, terrorism to his private life in nearly 200 similar cases aimed at keeping him in detention at every cost.
The judges have formally complained
that their loved ones were kidnapped, tortured and privacy of their family life
was secretly filmed allegedly by the military run secret services to compel them to
hand down adverse ruling against the most popular leader Imran Khan and his other
party leaders. One of the trial court judge was tortured, his home was hit with
bullets in a desperate effort to pressurizing him into delivering an adverse verdict against the PTI
leaders and supporters who were alleged to have attacked military installations
in reaction to Khan’s arrest in a
disgraceful manner by the men in military uniform in mid 2023.
Now after Friday’s court verdict
, the ruling alliance would not have sufficient number of seats in the
Parliament to change the existing legal and constitutional guarantees which
ensure the independence of judiciary, the freedom of expression and freedom of
association for political parties, something which have been aggressively abused
time and again allegedly by secret
services who virtually enjoy impunity without a legal cover.
Likely Scenario in Months to Come
Now after the court ruling, they would be more
encouraged to independently proceed with these cases. However, for the military and government the bigger setback
would be when the current Chief Justice of Pakistan Justice Qazi Faiz Essa would retire in October this year. Justice Essa has been at the center of allegations to have pursued the military’s
political agenda to politically corner the PTI and its top leader through his controversial
judgements. The court ruling deprived him to avail potential three years extension. The next Chief Justice of Pakistan
Justice Mansoor Ali Shah may directly take up PTI’s petitions on rigged
elections which if happened, would surely send the government packing within
weeks. Most of the winning candidates of the ruling alliance do not have any original
documents which entail poll results from the polling stations unlike the PTI’s candidates
who were made to lose even in cases they
were winning with margin of more than 100,000 votes. That is not all. The PTI would be now far more assertive in and outside the Parliament. It could
potentially launch a street agitation to
support judges hearing electoral cases and pressurize the military to release Imran
Khan from Jail. The last but not the least is the the foreseeable electoral victory
of US Presidential candidate Donald Trump with whom Imran Khan enjoys personal
relations. It means the military Generals could come under more pressure from Washington to set
Khan free and let the courts decide cases on rigged election without pressure
on judges.
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